A county with a large inflow is a place to investigate, not an automatic recommendation. The MoveNumbers migration tool uses a saved IRS dataset covering earlier periods, including 2019–2022. It does not establish where Americans are moving in 2026. The year in this page's original URL is retained for existing links, not as a claim about the data year.
What is being counted?
The IRS migration files compare addresses on individual income-tax returns between filing years. Returns approximate households, while exemptions provide a separate approximation of individuals. Neither represents a count of moving trucks, housing purchases or every resident. People who do not appear in matched returns are not fully represented.
Do not confuse a flow with a balance
Consider a hypothetical county with 8,000 incoming returns and 6,500 outgoing returns in one interval. Its net inflow is 1,500 returns. A second county with 2,000 arriving and 500 leaving also has a 1,500 net inflow, despite much less movement in both directions. Looking only at the net number hides that distinction.
Rates introduce another choice. Dividing return counts by total population mixes households with people. If you construct a rate, identify both the numerator and denominator and use compatible units and periods. A large county can lead by count while a smaller county changes faster proportionally.
Income data need care
Aggregate adjusted gross income is not a typical new resident's salary. Dividing it by returns gives an average AGI per return, which can be influenced by a small number of high-income returns. It is not a median, a job offer or a cost-of-living adjustment.
The IRS also documents a matching-method change for 2022–2023. New upstream files should be validated before combining them with earlier periods. Their availability does not mean MoveNumbers has already imported them.
Use the pattern to ask better questions
- Record the exact filing-year interval and whether you are viewing returns, exemptions or income.
- Inspect both directions and, where available, the origin and destination counties.
- Compare several compatible periods instead of turning one interval into a trend.
- Check current housing and job options independently. These files do not explain why an individual moved.
For your own decision, run a city cost comparison and build an address-level housing budget. Migration statistics can give context to that work; they cannot demonstrate that your salary will rise, that housing will appreciate or that a location suits your family.